Nations Champs week 3! Some tight matches in there for the most part, it should be a good weekend.

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Scotland then were mightily impressive in defeating a poor Argentina 47-38. Wales beat Fiji away… in Cardiff, but still a good result, and Japan got a strong home win against Italy. We now have another weekend of bumper action with some interesting matches, probably not on the same scale as last weekend. Read on as we preview all of the action.

2026 Nations Championship Results Week 1

2026 Nations Championship Preview Week 2

Overall, it’s not quite as impressive a slate as last weekend which had some real heavyweight clashes. The two standout matches are probably France against Australia and South Africa hosting Scotland. The others are a little bit b-list.

Australia v France

Australia will be looking to get a victory against a big team after going so close against Ireland. That match will give the Aussies plenty of confidence, although we seem to write that about them far too often. They are close, but can’t quite seem to make that step up and get regular victories against the big boys. The Lions tour, despite losing, looked to point to a brighter future, but as the defeats pile up, that is 8 in their last 10, the positivity will run out fast. With a home World Cup on the horizon, all of the rugby community will want Australia to go in with confidence and a team capable of capturing the public’s imagination. A strong Australia is good for rugby as a whole. The last time these two met in November, Australia were decent for a while, then France steamrollered them. We would be hesitant to suggest that the same will not happen again.

France themselves are not quite the team that they were, there has been a little drop off. They were pretty decent against the All Blacks last weekend, and that’s understating it. They almost won in New Zealand which is no mean feat. Without a couple of their major stars they are missing a bit of that potential game winning pizazz, but they should have too much for Australia once again. We have France as the clear favourites with a 73% chance of victory with a predicted scoreline of 30-21. Australia might take some solace in that they have won their last 5 encounters against France in Brisbane where they play on Saturday. Australia are definitely growing as a squad though, so don’t be surprised if they upset the odds, in what should be a good game.

South Africa v Scotland

The other standout game is not one that we necessarily predict to be a close one. The truth of the matter is that South Africa are streets ahead of everyone else in rugby right now. Their strength in depth is ridiculous, they have talent all across the backline and one of the most lethal finishers in Cheslin Kolbe. That step last weekend to send Caden Murley for a sandwich in the car park off a standing start was mesmeric. Therefore we fully expect South Africa to pick up another victory this weekend. They have won their last 9 in a row against the Scots, have won 9 in their last 10 and have a 91% chance of winning according to the model. Why bother tuning in you might say?

Well, first, to watch the Boks is a rugby education right now, and a sight to behold. However, on the other side of the coin is a Scotland side in an interesting place. Some big victories against England and France in the Six Nations mixed in with some shockers like losing to Italy. They have started the summer thrashing Argentina in Argentina which is not an easy task. So they are coming into this with a bit of form. Half their side is South African so they shouldn’t feel too out of place, and they have Finn Russell back at ten. They have a strong backline, capable of doing damage against anyone. The question is whether their pack can stand up to the Boks. The answer is probably no, but you never know.

The Rest

In the other matches this weekend, New Zealand gets the ball rolling against Italy with a 93% chance of victory. Italy will be disappointed with the result against Japan, so will be keen to come out and give a better account of themselves. New Zealand were far from perfect against France but they “got the job done” in common Football World Cup parlance.

Japan take on Ireland which will be a challenge for the Irish as Japan will be coming in with plenty of confidence following their victory against Italy, although Ireland won’t be short of that themselves after seeing off Australia, despite needing Donaldson to shank a tough penalty in the 81st minute to get the win. We give Ireland an 89% chance of victory.

England will head to Liverpool to play Fiji, both sides in uncomfortable foreign conditions. Fiji will be keen to show up a bit better than they did in losing to Wales last weekend, and England will have to lick their wounds and sort themselves out after getting a beating in South Africa. England did show some serious courage in not buckling after going 17-0 down and getting to within 3 points at half time. That was about as good as it got though as South Africa ran out 45-21 winners.

Finally, Argentina take on Wales, desperately needing a win to restore some pride following that really poor defeat to Scotland last weekend. Wales have won two matches in a row for the first time in a very long time, and will be keen to keep the ball rolling. Argentina will have to show that the match against Scotland was a hiccup and not that they have slipped considerably in the rankings.

2026 Nations Championship Tournament Chances

South Africa are way out in front with a whopping 53% chance of overall tournament victory. New Zealand are the next best with 18% which just shows the difference between South Africa and the rest. Ireland and France have 11% and 10% chances respectively as those with outside chances of victory.

Betting Outlook

Unsurprisingly, the majority of matches are fairly accurately priced with the bookies and the R4C model aligning up fairly closely. The only match with any kind of discrepancy is Fiji v England, with Fiji being undervalued at the bookies. The bookies give Fiji an implied probability of 8% whilst the model gives them a much healthier 24%. Be warned, this is still clearly a longer shot, although this kind of mispricing is bread and butter for the model. But another word of caution, the match is down as a home fixture for Fiji, which will tilt the scales in their favour when in fact it is in Liverpool and more like a home fixture for England, although that is debatable. However, the Fiji advantage for being at home is non existent, and so it is one to be careful with.

That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities @ Rugby4Cast

Nations Champs week 2!

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2026 Nations Championship

The 2026 Nations Championship is the inaugural edition of a brand new international rugby union competition featuring twelve men’s teams. The sides are divided into two pools of six and play a full round robin against the teams in the opposing pool across the mid year and end of year windows, with the top teams in each pool advancing to a final in London. Running concurrently is a second competition known as the World Rugby Nations Cup. Whilst promotion and relegation between the two competitions is intended for the future, there will be none in this first edition, so think of it for now as two separate tiers running in parallel rather than a single interconnected system.

New Zealand v France

Next weekend we have some fabulous matchups to get us kicked off. France v New Zealand is probably the biggest headliner, with New Zealand entering into a new phase under a new coach in Dave Rennie following the dismissal of Scott Robertson after a poor record of 7 wins in their last 10 and a poor defeat to England. Ardie Savea is the new captain, which is fair enough as he is an absolute monster, and they will need him to be at his best to lead New Zealand into a bit of rebuilding work to get the aura back heading into the World Cup.

France head to the Southern Hemisphere without some big stars, with some players having already played their allotted minutes for the season, including Louis Bielle Biarrey. However, there are still considerably more first team players heading on the trip than last year, which was something of a scandal when France sent a young second string side to New Zealand on tour.

New Zealand have the slight edge in this matchup, but it will be a great contest. France will be keen to show that their strength in the Six Nations can translate into an elusive World Cup win next year. It will also be fascinating to see how New Zealand play under Dave Rennie, who likes to play an attractive brand of rugby. As the Hurricanes just crushed all before them in Super Rugby, he could do worse than to just field them all and see how they go.

South Africa v England

England head to South Africa in a daunting matchup that promises to be quite revealing, but probably more so for England. South Africa are in fine form and remain such a formidable prospect. They have a tantalising three match series against the All Blacks later on in the summer, so they will want to warm up well with matches against England, Scotland and Wales. Their team is quite ridiculous. In our rankings South Africa are a whopping 8 points clear of New Zealand in second place. For context, 8 points separates New Zealand in second and Argentina in sixth, so the size of their superiority is clear.

They won a clean sweep of their autumn tour in the Northern Hemisphere, and in their last 5 against England have won 4. We have the Boks at a very high 77% chance of victory with England at just 22%. This match will most likely end in a Bok victory, so what will be interesting is to see how England measure up against a top side. England had a poor Six Nations with defeats to France, Italy, Ireland and Scotland. However, going into the tournament there was real talk of hope as they had cut the gap to the top sides. With Maro Itoje missing, it still is an interesting lineup from England. Fin Smith at 10 is in fine form, George Furbank returns at 15, and the experiment of Freeman at 13 continues. They have a decent pack with Curry and Earls, Pollock on the bench, and Ollie Chessum adding bulk as well. It just remains to be seen whether they can put a performance together against a top side.

To counter those shoots of positivity, South Africa bring an absolute monster pack with bucket loads of experience in The Ox, Malcolm Marx, Etzebeth, Kolisi and Du Toit, and then in the backs they have Kriel and De Allende in the centres and Cheslin Kolbe on the wing. Quite simply it is very hard to see how they will be stopped, but it will be a great test for England.

Australia v Ireland

Ireland head to Australia to face Joe Schmidt, now in charge of the Wallabies but who was a key component in building Ireland into the force they have been in recent memory. There was a lot of talk about Irish decline prior to the Six Nations and a heavy loss to France in the opening match seemed to confirm this, but they were able to recuperate and won all of their remaining fixtures, only just losing out to France to win the tournament. Leinster, with a strong national team core, then went on to make the final of the European Cup and win the URC to suggest that talk of Irish decline is a little premature.

They take a strong team to Australia with Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Josh van der Flier, Jamison Gibson Park, Garry Ringrose and Hugo Keenan, with Bundee Aki and Tadhg Beirne starting on the bench. Ireland have also won their last five against Australia, and we have them as favourites to win this matchup in Sydney with a 75% winning chance. It should be interesting though as Australia are desperate to put a team together that is capable of challenging in their home World Cup next year. They did go into their autumn tour last year with optimism following some decent results in the Rugby Championship, and a good showing in the second and third tests against the Lions. But they hit the buffers with a really poor tour of the NH.

Are there reasons to be optimistic for the Wallabies? Well, Joe Schmidt should be a bonus, but last year’s Northern Hemisphere tour was pretty damaging as they suffered bad defeats to England, Italy, Ireland and France. He is a very wise rugby coach and world class though, so they should trust in him after previous coaching debacles. Australia also have some fine players, with Bell, Alaalatoa and Valentini in the pack, whilst Ikitau and Suaalii in the centres is as good as anyone, and they have a lot of decent options on the wing. Dylan Pietsch could be one to look out for. However, Australia struggle with depth and at 10 they have turned to Carter Gordon, who has had a decent Super Rugby season, but it remains to be seen whether he is international class. On a good day they can give anyone a game, but that will be hard going to win anything of note. Australia are a good watch though so this game should be worth tuning in to.

The Rest

In other matches this weekend, Argentina host Scotland who will be without Finn Russell, so it will be interesting to see how they get on. Argentina are infuriating, capable of beating the All Blacks in New Zealand one day, or South Africa in South Africa, but also capable of falling apart. This is the time for them to put a really strong body of work together if they want to be contenders for next year’s World Cup, because they have talent in abundance and play great rugby, they just need to put it together more often. Japan host Italy in what should be a close match as Italy seek to continue their growth but will come up against a stubborn Japanese side, whilst Fiji also host Wales in a real battle where Wales need a good performance as they are in the doldrums.

Betting Outlook

Turning to where the value lies across the weekend, the standout play is Ireland to beat Australia in Sydney, which the model rates as our strongest recommendation of the round with the price of 1.60 being the value threshold and 1.79 is available. We rate Ireland at 66% chance to win whilst the bookies have them at 52%. Fiji at home to Wales is another one worth a look, with value at 1.71+ and flagged as a solid bet given how poorly Wales are travelling at the moment. Beyond those two the margins are slimmer, though there is some appeal in backing Japan with value at 2.93+. France also have a slightly higher chance of victory than the bookies are allowing for.

That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities @ Rugby4Cast

Nations Championship! What it it? How does it work? What is going on? Who is in charge here?

The last question is particularly pertinent - especially for World Rugby - but the first few we have covered.

The Nations Championship is a new initiative designed to replace the Summer and Autumn Tours (or Winter and Spring depending on your hemisphere). The top 6 Northern and Southern Hemisphere sides are separated into league tables, and each team will play the 6 opposing hemisphere sides once - 3 now and 3 in the traditional Autumn window.

At the end of these 6 matches the league tables will play the opposing ranks in a ‘Grand Final’ at the end of November.

Below shows how the Algo sees the first iteration of the tournament going. You can see the chances of each side finishing in each position, and their likely opposition in the final.

This is also available on the website, will be updated on a day by day basis and is interactive. You can progress teams into the various finals and see the chances against whichever opposition you choose.

A few interesting things straight off the bat - England above Ireland? Even after their disastrous Six Nations? This is down to the location of key fixtures. England play South Africa away, but New Zealand and Australia at home. Whereas Ireland are the opposite. Neither is expected to beat South Africa, regardless of location, but both will be expected to beat Argentina, Fiji and Japan. So they key fixtures against Australia and New Zealand will have great bearing on their final position. Advantage England, for now. We’ll see how the results progress!

Below are the predictions for the first week.

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The Top 14 Final Preview – Toulouse v Montpellier

This weekend brings the Top 14 final, with Toulouse facing Montpellier in Paris in what on paper looks a fascinating contest despite our model giving Toulouse a fairly clear 79% chance of victory with a predicted score of 34-19. Toulouse finished top of the table with Montpellier second, but interestingly it is Montpellier who carry the better recent form into the final, winning 9 of their last 10 in the league compared to Toulouse’s 6 from 10, even if the head to head history still points heavily in Toulouse’s favour, with 27 wins from 41 meetings down the years.

What will give Toulouse real confidence is the manner in which they dismantled Racing 92 in their semi final, putting up a huge score that announced them as the side to beat (oh, and having Dupont at 9 helps, I guess). Montpellier got the job done in their own semi but in a far more low key fashion, so there is a clear contrast in the way the two have arrived at this final, with Toulouse peaking at the right moment and Montpellier grinding their way through. Montpellier will be reliant on a few British Isles old timers in Ali Price at half-back and Billy Vunipola at eight. They will have to be on their game to compete with Ramos, Dupont and co. Toulouse also have their English player in Jack Willis, captain, and who is in great form and will want to make his mark on the final, considering he has given up an England career for moments like this. Toulouse are just too good 1 to 15 to have them anything other than favourites, apart from the obvious, look out for Chocobares at 12 for Toulouse as he is one of the best centres in the world. His name literally translates as Barcrasher which is excellent.

One factor that could yet have a real bearing on proceedings is the weather, with incredibly hot conditions forecast that could turn this into much more of an attritional battle than the form lines might suggest. If the heat saps energy levels as the game wears on, that tends to favour the side with greater squad depth and firepower off the bench, which on balance still points towards Toulouse. However it could be the curve ball Montpellier need to cause an upset.

In terms of match odds, there isn’t any value in this match to bet on. The bookies have Toulouse as heavy favourites at 80%, same as us. Stay clear as no value even if you think a Toulouse win is fairly safe territory.

The Nations Championship – kick-off a week away

What’s this all about then? Basically like the Nations League in football. Give an overarching sense of meaning to international tests, which is fairly debateable whether it is necessary in rugby. Anyway, the format is as follows (so you are all clued up this week):

The 2026 Nations Championship is the inaugural edition of a brand new international rugby union competition featuring twelve men’s teams. The sides are divided into two pools of six and play a full round robin against the teams in the opposing pool across the mid year and end of year windows, with the top teams in each pool advancing to a final in London. Matches kick off with three rounds from next week, and then two further rounds in Autumn.

That’s all for this weekend, but watch out for next weekend and all the previews when the inaugral Nations Championship kicks off and the countdown to next year’s World Cup starts in earnest.

And so, the majority of the Union seasons end for the summer with the exception - of course - of the Top 14 which continues forever.

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Rugby League however, continues. Which is exactly why it has been introduced at this key point of the season. Genius!

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The Prem Final Preview – Northampton Saints v Exeter

So we have got to the final of the Prem season and it is to be contested between Northampton and Exeter. Both sides had exceptional semi final performances, Northampton dealt with a very dangerous Leicester side winning 45-31 in a brilliant performance. George Furbank was in the tries and he will play his last game for Northampton before moving on to Harlequins. Northampton have led the Prem all year and it will be a real crowning achievement if they were to go on to win the final. We have Northampton as marginal favourites but it is tight. Northampton have a 58% chance with a predicted score of 24-19 showing how tight the algo thinks it is going to be. Northampton have a well drilled side and have been the best side all year. 2024 winners, they dropped off last year finishing 8th and failing to make the playoffs. They lost out in the European Cup final last year as well, and so will be keen to crown this group of players as champions once again. Northampton have plenty of firepower, but all eyes will be on Henry Pollock, to see if he can get a Prem trophy to match his growing reputation and ego.

Exeter meanwhile are coming into the final as surprise finalists. They won away at Bath last weekend in a brilliant performance, requiring some heroic last minute goal line defending as they upset the favourites for the title 27-26. There were excellent performances all round but the Australian duo of Hooper and Ikitau are probably their standout players. Exeter have won 4 out of their last five matches beating Bath (twice), Leicester and Saracens so come into this final in serious form. Their form saw them get into the playoffs winning a three way fight between Bristol and Saracens, and even pipping Leicester into third which got them the match at Bath. The way that they are playing, their confidence should see them as real contenders in this match, and should not be written off. It should be a really good match but Northampton should probably have a bit too much for them.

In terms of match odds, there isn’t any value in this match to bet on. The bookies have Northampton as favourites at 67% which is slightly over our 62%, so look out for possible value on Exeter. Look for value at 3.22+

URC Final Preview – Leinster v Bulls

After a two week break, on Friday night we have the URC final between two teams we have picked from quite a way out as being the two strongest teams in the competition, in spite of what the league table might have said. Just three weeks out from the end of the regular season, Bulls were in 7th place and it seemed a bold call to have them as second favourites. However, here we are and by ranking points they are actually the top ranked side in the URC, maybe surprisingly over Leinster.

It’s a repeat of last year’s final where Leinster claimed a dominant 32-7 victory in their first triumph since 2021. The Bulls meanwhile have lost two other finals without ever having won the thing. Leinster are stacked with talent and have returned to form after many were writing off this crop of Irish stars. Players like Hugo Keenan, James Lowe (who plays his final game for Leinster) and to a lesser extent, forward stalwarts Van der Flier, James Ryan, Tadhg Furlong, Joe McCarthy, have been questioned for Ireland over the past year, but they are still class and it is a ridiculous number of quality internationals in a club team. Add in Reiko Ioane and you have a half-decent side.

The Bulls have Handre Pollard and Willie Le Roux (still somehow going strong) to call on for experience, and they have a plethora of tough South African forwards to bring the fight to Leinster. What could swing the affair in Leinster’s favour is that it is Croke Park, so Leinster as the home team have a big advantage. Why they don’t play it at a neutral ground is a bit much for a final. Same in Super Rugby.

Leinster overcame the Stormers in the semi final in a predicted comfortable victory, whilst the Bulls went to Glasgow and won 22-21, and whilst also predicted, it shows that they can travel and win away from home in a big match.

The home advantage is what sways it however, and we have Leinster as 71% favourites giving the Bulls just a 28% chance of victory. The Bulls will draw confidence from an 8 match winning streak including 6 wins out of their last 7 away from home. Leinster meanwhile have won 9 from 10 at home, that only loss being to Bordeaux.

Similar to the Prem final, and not surprisingly, this is correctly priced as well more or less. The bookies actually give Leinster a slightly smaller chance of winning at 63% than the model, so there could be value in the market to back Leinster closer to kick off. Look for odds of 1.70+

Super Rugby Final Preview – Hurricanes v Chiefs

Early Saturday morning we have the Super Rugby final that was on the cards since before a ball was kicked this season. The Hurricanes v Chiefs. The Hurricanes have been the best side by some way this year, and have led the season models all year long. However, the Chiefs are coming into form at the right time and it should be an epic final. The Chiefs, of course, led by D-Mac have been excellent for many years and have amazingly lost the last 3 finals. Can they make it four? Meanwhile the Canes have not been to a final since 2018 when they beat the Lions of SA in their only Super Rugby victory to date.

In the semi finals the Hurricanes blew away the Blues 57-21 underlining their impressive dominance. The Chiefs had a great game against the Crusaders who were more than in the fight until the last 15 minutes when the Chiefs managed to ease away and win by a very comfortable looking 49-12. That shows just how clear these two are of the other teams in the championship.

The model has the Canes as fairly heavy favourites with a 71% chance, and it is hard to look beyond them, especially as they will be in front of a sold out home crowd. However, the Chiefs certainly do have more experience in playing in finals, and that might count for something.

The Hurricanes might be slightly underpriced for this one. The market gives them a 64% chance against our 68%. Still not enough to make it value in the betting market though. Look out if those odds go 1.69+.

That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Not so many matches, but what there are will be excellent fare. Sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities @ Rugby4Cast

Finals. Finals galore. Enjoy.

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RUGBY LEAGUE MAKES ITS 4CAST DEBUT. Welcome

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The Prem Semi-Final Preview

Semi Final 1: Leicester Tigers v Northampton Saints

The first Prem semi final is on Friday night and sees Leicester Tigers head to Franklin Gardens to take on Northampton Saints. The Saints finished top of the table, five points clear of Bath in second. Leicester had been third for a long time and headed into the final weekend playing away at Bath in what was a playoff for a home semi final. Leicester lost, and in so doing dropped to fourth, below Exeter who had their own eliminator to reach the playoffs at all as they beat Saracens at home and ended up in third.

However, in a curious twist, Leicester may be somewhat pleased with the outcome of the final round of matches even if they did lose. If they had ended up in third they would have had to head to the Rec and face Bath again. Instead, on paper they have the harder task in facing the top ranked side away from home. However, it may be exactly what Leicester needed. Heading to Bath again after losing there the week before would have been a big mental challenge. However, Bath won by just two points, which was 5 points fewer than expected, which shows that Leicester actually did alright. Prior to the last two weeks of the season, Leicester were the form team in the Prem with six wins in 7. Losing at home to Exeter was a damaging result, but running Bath so close last weekend shows they have bounced back to a degree. They will have to return to their top form if they want to upset Northampton, but it is far from cut and dried for the Saints.

The Saints have been at the top for a very long time and prior to last weekend had 8 wins in 9. Except that one loss was a 41-17 thrashing by Leicester but at Leicester. Last weekend they lost surprisingly to Harlequins, one of the poorest sides in the competition, but away from home and with top spot already secured it does not mean much.

Overall Northampton are slight favourites, their home form is rock solid with 10 wins out of the last 10 with an average score of 50-28. However the spectre of that loss to Leicester could give Leicester the edge and it is predicted to be very tight with a slight Northampton victory of 26-24 but that close it could clearly go either way. Leicester also have the slight upper hand 3-2 in their last five going back to April 2024.

Semi Final 2: Bath v Exeter Chiefs

The other semi final sees second placed Bath at home to third placed Exeter, which promises to be not quite as close as the other semi final. Or does it….

Bath have been our favourites to win the Prem title since the start of the season and nothing has changed. The model has Bath with a 40% chance of winning overall with Leicester actually being their nearest challenger with 26%, not Northampton as one might expect. However, it is clear that there has been a drop off in Bath’s form, especially considering the European Cup semi final defeat against Bordeaux which clearly showed the difference in class between the best of Britain and their French counterparts. Since then they have lost to their semi final opponents Exeter, badly (but in Exeter), beat Newcastle easily (as everyone does), lost to Bristol and in an important return to form narrowly beat Leicester. But that win, as we noted above, was 5 points fewer than predicted, showing they are not performing at the level expected of them.

Exeter themselves are a chameleon team. A 5-5 record in their last 10 in the Prem, and a 4-1-5 record away from home which isn’t bad. Their recent results include the win at home to Saracens who were on the up with a playoff place on the line, a win away at Leicester, a loss away at Harlequins, that aforementioned win at home against Bath and a loss to Ulster away from home. It’s a real mixed bag, but shows that if they turn up they can mix it with anyone, and they already have Bath’s number.

The model is predicting a Bath win at 79% but that looks a little on the heavy side. It may well be a lot closer but one would still predict Bath to edge it.

Super Rugby Semi Final Preview

Semi Final 1: Chiefs v Crusaders

The first semi final is between the Chiefs and Crusaders in what promises to be a really good match and a repeat of last year’s final when the Crusaders upset the Chiefs 16-12. By the time you read this they will probably be kicking off so be quick or watch a repeat without finding out the score.

The Chiefs go into this with home advantage which makes them favourites. We give them a 74% chance of victory with a winning margin of 10 points. Seems fairly straightforward. However, the Chiefs had a bruising encounter against the Reds in the quarter finals, and although the scoreline was quite comfortable in the end it was a tough game, and could have swung the Reds’ way. The Chiefs were not at their fluent best and will need to improve this time out.

Meanwhile the Crusaders were excellent in steamrollering the Blues 52-31, and whilst that defence looks leaky, they won by 8 more points than predicted. The Chiefs’ form is rock solid however with 9 wins in their last 10, except that one loss being against the Crusaders three rounds ago. So Crusaders will be full of confidence knowing they can get a result against the Chiefs. The Chiefs will be desperate to make the final again and this time actually win it after three final defeats in a row. Two of those final defeats were to the Crusaders so mental scars abound for the Chiefs. They should probably have too much for the Crusaders and watch out for Isaac Hitchinson at full back for the Chiefs who is a potential star and was brilliant against the Reds in really tough conditions.

Semi Final 2: Hurricanes v Blues

The second semi final is a strange one. The Canes have been top of the table all year and our pick to win the tournament all year, and they walked past the Brumbies in the quarter final. The Blues lost pretty badly to the Crusaders but due to the nature of the Super Rugby tournament, they make the semi final anyway as the highest ranked quarter final loser. Or qualifying final as they call it over there.

The Canes won both of the matches between them in the regular season and are heavy favourites to win again. We have them with a 79% chance of victory with a 20 point winning margin. Anything other than a Hurricanes’ victory would be a massive shock.

Over their last 10 at home the Canes are 10 and 0 so that’s not great reading for the Blues, meanwhile the Blues have lost their last three away. Beauden Barrett returns at 15 for the Blues, in a rejigged back line, so it’s a bit of hit and hope territory for them. Still, both teams are pretty decent so the Blues could cause an upset. Probably wouldn’t bet on it though.

That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Not so many matches, but what there are will be excellent fare. Sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities @ Rugby4Cast

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URC Semi-Finals Preview

Glasgow blew past Connacht to make the semi finals after finishing the season top of the table. Their reward is a semi final in Edinburgh against the Bulls. The Bulls finished the regular season in fourth but have come into some serious form, having won 9 out of the last 10 in the URC and 5 out of the last 6 away matches. The Bulls thrashed Munster 45-14 last weekend and we picked the Bulls to be second favourites to win the trophy as far back as a couple of months ago. This match promises to be a real belter and it could go either way, although the Bulls have a very slight edge. This is definitely one to watch.

In the other semi final it looks to be a lot easier to pick the winner. Leinster, who got beaten comfortably in the end in the European Cup Final, should have enough to make up for it a little by at least getting to the final, as they are heavy favourites against the Stormers. Leinster bounced back by thrashing the Lions whilst the Stormers dispatched Cardiff. The Stormers finished in third but we have Leinster as heavy favourites for this one with an 84% chance of success.

In terms of the betting market, the Leinster game is fairly accurately priced with Leinster also heavy favourites with the bookmakers, so this is one to miss out on. However, the Bulls are underpriced against Glasgow as the bookmakers have Glasgow as favourites, in contrast to our model. Look out for odds over 2.60, with 2.63 currently available.

The Prem Final Round Preview

We head into the final round of action with Northampton having the top spot locked in. Bath have been in second and comfortable for most of the season but one win in four in the Prem has seen the gap reduced considerably and they are now only 2 points clear of Leicester in third. Exeter are in fourth and facing a battle against a resurgent Saracens side who have a chance to knock Exeter out of the playoffs and claim that fourth spot themselves. They face off in Exeter in the most interesting game of the weekend.

The big match to watch out for this weekend is the aforementioned clash as Saracens head to Exeter with the winners claiming a playoff spot. This is one which could go either way but Exeter are slight favourites, having beaten Leicester last weekend away from home and Bath at home in their last three. An away loss to Harlequins is a blemish which sandwiches those two great wins. Saracens meanwhile are coming into this crunch match having won five on the bounce including a home win against Leicester, although the other wins against Sale, Bristol, Gloucester and Harlequins were to be expected. It should be a real cracker and a tight call.

The other match to stay tuned to is Bath at home to Leicester. Bath are looking to hang on to the all important second spot and secure a home semi final, whilst Leicester have a chance to overtake them. Bath have one win in four in the Prem with losses to Bristol, Exeter and Northampton and a solitary win against basement club Newcastle. Leicester meanwhile have won 3 and lost 2 in their last 5 in the Prem, losing to Exeter last time out and also to Saracens recently, with wins against Sale, Northampton and Newcastle making for a real mixed bag. We have Bath edging this one with a 72% chance of winning but the margin suggests it will be a close game that could go down to the wire. Definitely one to watch.

Both the big games are correctly priced by the bookmakers so this is definitely a round to sit back and enjoy rather than getting involved in. Keep checking the page though as odds get updated closer to the match, as Exeter are slightly underpriced but not enough to come in over the threshold required as yet. One to watch.

Super Rugby Playoff Preview

It is quarter final time in Super Rugby as the season comes to its conclusion and we enter the playoffs. In a surprise to no one, the league was dominated by the New Zealand teams, with the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Crusaders and the Blues occupying the top four spots, with the Reds and Brumbies completing the quarter final lineup. In addition to the relative strength of the teams at the top of the pile, home advantage is a massive factor in Super Rugby and thus the quarter finals are a bit of a non starter really. It has been a very long time since an Australian team went to New Zealand and won a playoff game and it does not look like being any different this weekend. Both the Hurricanes and Chiefs are 90% favourites to dispatch the Brumbies and Reds respectively, as they have been the best teams this year by a wide margin. The Canes are unbeaten at home in their last ten whilst the Brumbies have won just 4 of their last 10 home or away. The Chiefs are slightly more fallible at home, winning 8 of their last 10, whilst the Reds have won 5 of their last 10 home or away. In both cases, fully expect New Zealand victories.

Meanwhile the only match which might produce a good battle sees the Crusaders host the Blues. The Crusaders won the last time they played in Canterbury 36-20 just three rounds ago, which is more or less what we would expect to happen again. The Blues have lost their last three whilst the Crusaders have won 9 of their last 10 at home, and it would be quite an upset if the Blues got up for this one and reached the semi finals.

That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast

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The European Champions Cup Final Preview

The big one. This year’s European Champions Cup Final promises to be an absolutely fantastic game of rugby and one for the neutrals to really enjoy. We have two teams who really are at the top of European rugby. Between them, there is one loss in 20 Champions Cup matches, and that is extraordinary. That one loss was last year’s semi-final when Northampton overcame Leinster as Henry Pollock inspired a fantastic Northampton performance. In the final, Northampton were rocked by injuries early doors and, despite doing well to be all square at the break, Bordeaux ultimately had too much power for them and it never really looked in much doubt.

This year, Leinster have timed their form to perfection and, despite a very average start, have got stronger and stronger as the season has progressed. They finished second in the URC regular season and top our predictive model as likely overall winners of the playoffs. Leinster have lost four finals since their last victory in 2018, and will be desperate to win. With Rieko Ioane on the wing, a serious pack including Lions aplenty, and all marshalled by Gibson-Park, they are a serious outfit. There is a sense that Ireland and, by extension, Leinster were on the wane on the international stage. However, the Six Nations showed that any talk of their demise was greatly overstated. Meanwhile, Bordeaux have been imperious in the Champions Cup. Getting past Toulon and then smashing Bath in the semi-final is seriously impressive form. They have been there and done it, and have some of the most exciting players in the world, not least Bielle-Barrey who is just exceptional. However, in the Top 14 they have not been so sparkling and sit in fifth place, 14 points off Toulouse who lead the table.

It is always fun to go back and look at the predictions and chatter before the competition started all the way back in December. Our click-baity tournament preview title was “Bordeaux have no chance of retaining their crown!” as they were only given a 6% chance of winning the whole competition. That was mainly because the model correctly predicted that their route to the final would require toppling Toulouse, who were the favourites as the competition kicked off, and as the league has shown, are the best team in France. Meanwhile, Leinster were second favourites from the outset, even as they had started slowly in the league, as they were predicted to sweep their group and have a fairly comfortable run to the final, exactly as it has played out. By the third round of group games, with Toulouse’s form being a little iffy in the group phase, the article headline was “Are Leinster Really Favourites?” as they had replaced Toulouse as the outright favourites, and Bordeaux had moved into third with an 11% chance. By the final weekend of group action, Bordeaux were up to 13% and Leinster down to 28% but still clear.

Toulouse’s poor group form saw Bordeaux get the home quarter final against them and Bordeaux were able to see them off, and suddenly Bordeaux’s chances were up to 39% before the semi final. Results since then see Bordeaux drop slightly to the 28% chance that they have today. All in all it has been fascinating to see how Bordeaux’s chances have developed over the course of the competition, and Leinster have remained consistently as the favourites since week two, despite their poor start in the URC and a general sense that they are on the decline.

Prediction

Now the final has come around, Leinster are being tipped by the model to have a clear edge, predicting a three point winning margin but giving Leinster a healthy 70% chance of success. That may be something of a surprise, as Bordeaux are considered the favourites by many. This is reflected in the odds, as there is a massive opportunity in the market. It is very rare to have such a discrepancy for a final, especially one of such magnitude. Leinster are massively underpriced, with value at 2.25 and above, and 2.85 is still out there, although those odds are coming down.

All in all, it should be an excellent match, between two great teams. Will it be decided by some Bielle-Biarrey magic of will Leinster’s brilliant pack be too much? Our prediction: Dan Sheehan to win MOTM as Leinster take the title.

The European Challenge Cup Final Preview

In the Friday night European Challenge Cup Final, Ulster take on Montpellier with the French side clear favourites. Montpellier are second in the Top 14 and having an excellent season led by Billy Vunipola at 8 and Ali Price at 9. They are in fine form, with one defeat in their last 10, and that was against Toulouse, and includes a victory against Bordeaux.

Ulster have the upper hand in the head-to-head with three victories to nil, but they were in 2013 and 2024. In the URC this year, Ulster just finished outside the playoff places in ninth, following a last day loss at home to Glasgow. If Ulster are to win, Angus Bell, a world class prop needs to have his finest game.

The bookies have got this one spot on, unlike the Champions Cup Final, with the model and the bookies matching up exactly. This means that there is no value out there so one to stay away from.

Super Rugby Weekend Preview

Standings & Chances

The Hurricanes underlined their title credentials by beating the Blues away from home last weekend rather comfortably, 47-24. The Chiefs ensured that the table remains relatively close as they beat the Highlanders at home. The Waratahs got a good win at the Drua to close the gap to the Brumbies and the Reds, as the Reds went down away at the Force, who have been getting their act together with three wins in their last four.

The Canes have increased their chances of taking the trophy from 55% to 62% with the Chiefs dropping back slightly, and everyone else out of the picture.

Weekend Predictions

The Canes should get a comfortable home win against the Highlanders, whilst the Chiefs have a tough away match at the Crusaders. A big game on Friday as the Tahs host the Brumbies and will be looking to steal into that last playoff spot at the Brumbies’ expense.

That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast

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The Prem Weekend Preview

The Power Rankings

Last weekend, Leicester delivered a pretty powerful message. They dismantled Northampton, the Prem leaders, and beat them 41-17. With eight wins in their last 10 Prem matches, they have surged to the top of our Power Rankings. By not just winning but thrashing Northampton, they have leapfrogged them and sit in first place. Northampton have slipped all the way down to 4th as a result of that defeat. Saracens have also made a big move and gone into 3rd with an excellent away win at Bristol. Bath had their own issues and lost away at Exeter in a demoralising defeat following their semi-final loss to Bordeaux the weekend prior.

These rankings are not some arbitrary rankings, but the accumulated ELO points which are won and lost with every result, and are weighted according to the strength of opposition, home or away, and so on. Leicester are now the strongest team in the division. So, that surely means they are favourites to win the whole thing? Well, not quite.

Northampton, despite dropping down, should have enough in the tank to get a home semi-final, and that makes a massive difference. They should still finish top as well, as they face Bristol and Gloucester at home, and Harlequins away, three matches they are predicted to win. Bath have an easy home game against Newcastle, then a tricky away fixture against Bristol before finishing off the season with a home tie against Leicester, which will probably be a game to see who gets home advantage for the semi-final.

Accordingly, Leicester, if they are to win, will have to do it the hard way, either beating Bath away in the league to get a home semi-final, or losing in the league but then having to go and beat them away in the playoff semi-final. In either scenario, they have to beat Bath away, and whilst doable, it certainly dampens their chances of overall victory. Similarly, Bath have to beat Leicester twice to make the final, possibly both times home, but it is still a tough task.

This leaves Northampton with a clear run at home against the fourth placed team, which is likely to be Exeter or Saracens, although Saracens have a lot of ground to make up. It is not impossible, as Exeter have to play Harlequins away, which they should win, but then face Leicester away before finishing against Saracens at home. Similarly to Leicester, if Saracens want to get into the playoffs they have a tough job, as they should pick up two wins from Gloucester and Harlequins at home but have to beat Exeter away if they are to make it. Of course, if they do, they could have more than enough to challenge Northampton.

So all in all, it basically means every team has a bit of a tricky path requiring some pretty good wins, whilst Northampton can stroll to a home semi-final where they will face a tough opponent but at home it will be hard to look beyond them. That is why they top the chances of winning the tournament, not because they are the best team, but because statistically their route to the final is the easiest.

Weekend Predictions

Northampton are looking to bounce back from that disappointing defeat to Leicester with a home game against Bristol on Friday night, which they should win as 78% favourites. However, Bristol are still fighting to make the playoffs although it is a tough ask as they have the trickiest fixtures, playing Northampton, Bath and Sale in their last three matches.

On Saturday, Bath have a nice weekend to get back to winning form, facing Newcastle at home. Exeter face Harlequins away, desperate for a win which they need to avoid ceding ground to Saracens, who should beat Gloucester at home.

Sale host Leicester on Sunday to round off the weekend’s fixtures, and Leicester should have too much for Sale but away is always a tough game.

The Prem Market View

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URC Weekend Preview

It is the final round of regular season action this weekend as teams battle to make it into the top 8 and the playoffs that start in two weeks time.

Standings & Chances

The picture has cleared somewhat after last weekend’s games, which went pretty much as predicted. This has left Glasgow, Stormers, Leinster and the Bulls as odds on favourites to be the top 4 and secure a home quarter final. As we mentioned last week, the Bulls, who then were in 7th, are the overall favourites, as it is likely they climb further after this weekend’s fixtures. Then Leinster are hot on their heels, and it looks like it should be between these two, as Glasgow and Stormers are way down due to the difficulty of their final round matches and the likelihood of facing an away semi final.

Weekend Predictions

The games to watch out for include Munster v Lions, which will determine their final placing and their draw in the playoffs as they are only separated by two points. However, perhaps more interestingly, Ulster host Glasgow on Friday night, and Glasgow will be desperate to finish top of the table and be the number 1 seed entering into the playoffs. With the Stormers also having a tough job away to Cardiff, the path opens up for Leinster to collect their victory at home to Ospreys and top the table, which would be typical Leinster after playing catchup all season. The Bulls should also dispatch Benetton to move up if Glasgow or the Stormers slip up.

Women’s Six Nations – Grand Slam Decider

Standings & Chances

It’s a Grand Slam decider as France host England in what should be a good game. England have won their matches by fewer points than expected (last weekend they conceded 33 points to Italy, which is crazy), and France have been excellent, winning all of their games by greater points margins than expected. The gap between them is reducing, and with the match being held in France, a real shock could be on the cards. England are still 66% favourites to win, but that has come down from the high 80s before last weekend.

We say shock, because England Women are statistically miles ahead of the rest. Despite it dropping slightly, they are still 8 points clear of second place, and 18 points clear of France. England have won 5 of the last 5 against France, including twice away in the most recent meetings. It should be closer than anyone thought it would be prior to the tournament, but England should have too much and seal another Grand Slam.

Super Rugby Weekend Preview

Standings & Chances

The Blues lost to the Crusaders to knock their momentum significantly. The Chiefs beat the Reds away and the Canes thrashed Moana. This week, the Canes meet the Blues at Eden Park in the game of the round, and the Reds take on the Force needing a win to get back on to keep up their playoff hopes.

Clear water now between the Canes and everyone else, but it remains a battle between the Canes and Chiefs come final time. The top 6 are pretty much locked in, even with three rounds to play.

Weekend Predictions

That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast

EUROPEAN CHAMPIONS CUP PREDICTIONS

DATA DRIVEN BETTING ANALYSIS – FIRST MONTH FREE

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The Prem Weekend Preview

Standings & Chances

Northampton top the table as we go into the last four weeks of the season before the playoffs. They are four points clear of Bath, who are comfortable in second. Leicester, in turn, are looking good for third, while Exeter and Bristol are battling it out for the final playoff spot. Saracens are six points further back and need results to go their way if they are to sneak into fourth. The rest are already looking towards next season.

The model now has Northampton as favourites to take the title, moving ahead of Bath for the first time. They have a 40% chance, but it remains incredibly tight, with Bath just three percentage points back on 37%. Those two are the clear front-runners, as Leicester have a 13% chance, while the other playoff contenders have only minimal hopes. Of those chasing teams, the model has Bristol overtaking Exeter to sneak into fourth.

Weekend Predictions

This weekend is a great weekend of close matchups in The Prem, which isn’t always the case. A Friday night lower-table contest kicks us off between Gloucester and Sale which should be incredibly tight with Sale having a slight edge. Leicester and Northampton then face off in the game of the round, Leicester having a slight advantage. Bristol v Saracens is a key match in the battle for fourth and should be an absolute cracker on Saturday afternoon. The model is leaning Bristol, but if Saracens want to get to the playoffs this is a must-win for them.

On Sunday, Harlequins and Newcastle fight to see who is the worst team in The Prem and then Exeter host Bath in a brilliant Sunday afternoon game. Bath will be looking to bounce back from their European Cup disappointment whilst Exeter are gunning for the playoffs. This should be a good watch.

The Prem Top Tip

Top tip in The Prem this weekend is Bristol at home against Saracens. We give Bristol a 71% chance, whilst the bookies make Saracens favourites. Accordingly, there is value in the market, and there is value on Bristol at 1.98+, which is freely available.

URC Weekend Preview

Standings & Chances

The Stormers have gone to the top of the table with just two rounds left to play, but it is very tight at the top. Five points separate the Stormers and Munster in fifth place, with Glasgow, Lions, and Leinster in between. Cardiff and Bulls are two points further back and Ulster are in the last playoff spot in eighth place with a three-point cushion to Connacht.

Curiously, it is the Bulls, currently down in seventh, who are favourites to take the title according to the model with a 23% chance, so it is pretty tight, with just a 1-in-4 chance for the favourite. Leinster are just behind with 21%, followed by Glasgow and Lions. Realistically, the winner is going to come from one of those four. With eight wins from the last 10, the Bulls are coming to the boil at the right time. With two easy matches coming up to finish the regular season, against Zebre and Benetton, both at home, a home quarter-final beckons. Then last year’s runners-up will be a tough match for anyone in the semi-final, whereas a team like Leinster has to face the Lions this weekend, which could potentially disrupt their push for a home quarter-final. It is all rather tight, and a home quarter-final will be crucial, as well as fighting for the highest ranking possible, which will secure a home semi-final.

Weekend Predictions

Ulster host the Stormers on Friday night in a very close match. Ulster are in eighth and battling to hang onto a playoff spot. Connacht, who are their closest challengers, host Munster in an all-Irish affair which should be a great battle, with Connacht having a slight edge. Elsewhere, Glasgow host Cardiff, Leinster take on the Lions, and the Dragons host Edinburgh.

Women’s Six Nations

Standings & Chances

England and France are leading the way, equal on 14 points. They meet in Paris in the final game of the Championship so if both sides get through this weekend it should be a belter next weekend.

Despite it being tight up to this point, and England having to win away in the final match if they want to win the tournament, England’s superiority in the Women’s game is such that they still have an 83% chance of success compared to the French’s 10%.

Weekend Predictions

England should cruise past Italy, whilst France have more of a job to do away against Scotland. They are heavy favourites, but it will not be a complete walkover. Ireland then host Wales and are favourites to move into third place in the table.

Super Rugby Weekend Preview

Standings & Chances

The Canes are top, two points clear of the Blues, having played one game more. The Chiefs are two points further back, also having played one game less than the Blues. The Crusaders complete an all-Kiwi top four, with the Reds and Brumbies from Australia completing the playoff spots. They have a bit of a gap to the Tahs who lost at home to the Force last weekend in a very disappointing result for their season.

The Canes have more than a 50% chance of winning the title from the Chiefs. It is clearly going to be between these two, the only possible challenger being the Blues, but they have a small 9% chance of victory. Still, one in ten, it could happen.

Last Weekend’s Results

Super Rugby Weekend Predictions

There are several close games this weekend. The Crusaders host the Blues needing a victory to boost their playoff chances. This one could go either way, although Crusaders have a slight advantage. The Chiefs travel to the Reds, the Reds with inconsistent form this season, but will be looking to build on a strong home victory against the Brumbies last weekend.

Super Rugby Overall Winner

Great value to be had on the Canes as they are heavily mispriced in the market. We give them a 51% chance of success compared to the just 35% in the market. Look for odds of 2.4+.

That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast